Last level defend your castle1/2/2024 ![]() Then there's that aspect of economic weakness that no one likes. We want some austere word choice when it comes to the weakness of theĮconomy, as the weak economy is GENERALLY beneficial for rates. You may already understand, this would not be good for mortgage rates. Too, will their verbiage today include further comments on moderationįor recessionary pressure? "Downside risks to economic growth remain,īut have moderated in recent weeks" or something to that effect? As Gravity of their diction has in recent weeks has been moderating. Of course, the weak economy will be mentioned, but how concerned areīenny and the Jets about economic weakness this time around? The New Home Sales are due out any moment, but neither this report, nor the MBA (nor durable goods for that matter) are going to have an appreciable impact on the markets on Fed Day.MBA purchase applications dropped to a 6.5 year low owing to higher rates and a continuing nauseating housing market.Durable Goods Orders hit expectations exactly, of 0.0 signaling no growth and no contraction.The only reason to consider this morning's numbers are if you are not locked yet and are considering doing so before the announcement. The big buys and sells will be coming in after the FOMC announcement. This shifts the focus of analytical efforts entirely on squeezing as much "meaning" out of the policy statement as possible.ĭon't pay too much mind to this morning's numbers. Futures traders and indeed nearly every economist surveyed by major news outlets are quite positive that there will be no change in the benchmark rate. Mortgage Backed Bonds and SecuritizationĪll analogies aside, the direction of rates for the remainder of the day and quite possibly the general direction of rates in the short to mid term will be largely impacted by the FOMC's policy statement today.
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